Dolphins vs Chargers 2023 NFL Betting Odds in Week 1

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It’s a terrific matchup of 2022 NFL playoff teams in Week 1 on Sunday as Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins visit Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, who are field goal favorites on the NFL odds. Tua and Herbert were the No. 5 and No. 6 overall picks, respectively, in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers Odds, Analysis and Prediction | 2023 NFL Expert Analysis by MyBookie Sportsbook

NFL Regular Season: September 7, 2023 – January 7, 2024

How to Bet Dolphins at Chargers NFL Odds & TV Info

When: Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Where: SoFi Stadium
TV: CBS
Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
Stream Option: https://tv.youtube.com/learn/nflsundayticket/
Opening NFL Lines: Chargers -3 (total 51.5)

Last Meeting

The teams met in Los Angeles in Week 14 last year and the Chargers won 23-17. Justin Herbert threw for 367 yards and a touchdown. Tyreek Hill scored two touchdowns for the Dolphins, one of them on an incredible fumble recovery. But Tua Tagovailoa had his worst game as an NFL starter, completing 10 of 28 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers held Miami to 219 yards despite missing a few starters on defense. The Dolphins hold a 17-15 all-time regular season record against the Chargers, but LA has won two of the last three meetings.

Why Bet on Miami?

The Fins could be stellar if QB Tua Tagovailoa can avoid his concussions issues this season as he still has the NFL’s top WR duo in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. From Week 1 through Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season, there wasn’t a more efficient quarterback than Tua. In that span, Tagovailoa completed 216 of 317 passes (68.1%) for 2,859 yards (9.0 yards per attempt), 21 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a league-high passer rating of 112.0.

Tagovailoa last played in a regular-season game Dec. 25, 2022, when he suffered his second diagnosed concussion of the season and was effectively shut down by the Dolphins. The fourth-year pro used a personalized jiu-jitsu and breakfall training program this offseason to learn how to fall properly, and he gained eight pounds of muscle.

Tua led the NFL in passer rating (105.5) & yds/att (8.9) last season, the 1st Dolphins QB to lead NFL in passer rating since Dan Marino (1984). Miami averaged 25.5 PPG w/ Tua as the starting QB and 16.3 in the games he missed.

Waddle is dealing with an oblique injury but expected to play. He played in all 17 games last season and, despite the presence of Hill in the offense, finished with 75 receptions for 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns. Hill Waddle combined for 3,066 yards last season, the 3rd-most of any WR duo in a single season in NFL history.

The Fins could be down two starting offensive linemen. Guard Robert Jones is for sure out as he was placed on injured reserve Wednesday after he sustained a sprained MCL during the Dolphins’ preseason game against the Texans on Aug. 19. Robert Hunt will take over for Jones at right guard for at least the first four games of the campaign. Pro Bowl tackle Terron Armstead is dealing with a leg injury but is hoping to play through it.

Miami’s defense should be better this year after the team hired Vic Fangio as DC this offseason. The last time Fangio led an NFL defense as Broncos head coach in 2021, Denver finished #3 in the league in scoring defense. Miami 24th in scoring defense last season, allowing 23.5 PPG. It hasn’t had a top-5 scoring defense since 2006 when their HC was Nick Saban. Fangio has been in charge of four top 10 defenses in the last 5 years, including a #1 defense in Chicago as the DC in 2018.

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Why Bet on LA Chargers?

The Chargers finally made the playoffs last year, the first time under QB Justin Herbert – who this season became the highest-paid player in NFL history by average annual value. No player in NFL history has thrown for more pass yards (14,089) & has more 4,000-yard seasons (3) in their first 3 seasons than Herbert. Only Dan Marino (98) threw more pass TDs over his first 3 seasons.

Last season, Herbert had career-worsts in pass yards per game (278.8) & pass TDs (25) and was also sacked a career-high 38 times. The Chargers have scored more points and have allowed more points in Herbert’s starts than any other QB through 3 NFL seasons since the 1970 merger.

LA hired former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore for the same role after the Bolts blew a 27-0 lead in the wild card game in Jacksonville and lost. Under Moore (2019-22), the Cowboys were the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL (27.7 PPG).

Running back and fantasy stud Austin Ekeler has 38 touchdowns in past 2 seasons, 12 more than the next-closest player. He is the player to lead or tie for the NFL lead in TD in back-to-back seasons since Todd Gurley in 2017-18. The last player to lead or co-lead the NFL in scrimmage touchdowns in 3 straight seasons was Jim Brown from 1957-59.

The Chargers released their first injury report of the season Wednesday afternoon and J.C. Jackson was not listed on it, another good sign for the Bolts cornerback in his return from a torn patellar tendon. Jackson endured an up-and-down 2022 season with the Chargers after joining the team as a free agent last offseason. A frustrating season culminated in a serious knee injury in Week 7. LA is very healthy for Week 1.

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Expert Prediction

Chargers 27, Dolphins 24

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