NFL Jaguars Offense In-Depth Betting Analysis

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Not all that long ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars were an utter mess under Coach Urban Meyer. Now under Coach Doug Pederson, the Jags have a chance this season to reach their first-ever Super Bowl after winning the AFC South last year. Let’s break down the 2023 Jaguars.

Check out an in-depth look at Jacksonville’s offense this season as well as how their offense may affect NFL betting odds.

2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Offense In-Depth Betting Analysis | MyBookie NFL Preview

Jacksonville Jaguars: 28th season in the NFL
Owner: Shahid Khan
Head Coach: Doug Pederson
Home Field: TIAA Bank Field | Jacksonville, Florida

Super Bowl Odds:+2500
Odds to win AFC: +1200
Odds to win AFC South: -165
Regular-season wins: 9.5
To make playoffs: Yes -195, no +165

Last February, the Jaguars hired former Eagles Super bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson, who spent the 2021 season out of football, but he was the first head-coaching candidate the Jaguars interviewed. Pederson’s hiring simply changed everything. It didn’t happen overnight as the Jaguars started last season 4-8 but then closed with five straight wins to win the AFC South.

Jacksonville hosted the Chargers in the wild card round and looked brutal in the first half down 27-0 but rallied for a stunning 31-30 win. Jags QB Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, followed four interceptions against the Chargers with four touchdown passes.

Lawrence engineered the winning drive, highlighted by Travis Etienne’s 25-yard run on a fourth-and-1 play, and put the Jaguars in position for Riley Patterson’s 36-yard field goal on the final play. It capped a 27-point comeback, the largest in franchise history and the third largest in playoff history.

The next week, the Jaguars lost 27-20 in Kansas City but certainly no shame in losing at the eventual Super Bowl champions.

Lawrence will have a major new weapon this year in former Falcons Pro Bowl receiver Calvin Ridley, who was suspended all of 2022 for gambling. He’s good to go now and believes he will put up 1,400 yards in this offense. Ridley might be right. The 28-year-old combines field-stretching ability with crisp route-running. In his first three seasons in Atlanta, the former first-round pick generated 3,061 yards and 26 TDs on 217 catches. He caught his last NFL pass on Oct. 24, 2021.

After shaking off a year of Meyer as head coach, Lawrence improved from a 59.6 completion rate to 65.5%, 3,641 passing yards to 4,618, 12 TDs to 17 INTs to 30 TDs to 13 INTs and two rushing TDs to five rushing TDs from his rookie season to 2022 with Pederson. If Lawrence continues to ascend, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be a regular in the MVP conversation this year. Just 23, he’s got both plenty of room to grow and all the physical traits of an elite pocket gunslinger.

Running back Travis Etienne Jr. was sidelined his entire rookie year with a foot injury, but he made up for lost time in 2022 with his versatile skill set out of the backfield. He finished with 1,125 rushing yards (5.1 yards per carry) and five touchdowns while adding another 316 yards through the air. The 24-year-old also had 13 gains of 10-plus yards over expected.

The Jags will be without starting left tackle Cam Robinson for the first four games due to suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy. Robinson is eligible to participate in training camp and the preseason and will be allowed to return to the active roster Oct. 2. Robinson ranked 59th in pass block win rate among offensive tackles in 2022. He missed the final three games of the regular season and both Jaguars playoff games due to injury. That leaves two-year reserve Walker Little and first-round rookie Anton Harrison to open the season as the starting tackles.

In the draft, the Jaguars traded their No. 24 overall pick to the New York Giants for the Nos. 25, 160 and 240 picks. They then traded the No. 25 overall pick to the Buffalo Bills for the No. 27 and No. 130. And with the No. 27 pick, the Jaguars selected OT Anton Harrison from Oklahoma. Harrison allowed just two pressures on 406 pass-block snaps last season, and allowed only one sack on 772 pass-block snaps in the past two seasons. The Jaguars were 31st in the NFL in pass block win rate last season.

Jacksonville opens the season in Indianapolis and is a 4-point favorite. The Jaguars are 5-17 all-time against the Colts in Indianapolis, with the Colts winning the last five meetings there – including a 34-27 Jaguars loss in October of 2022.

The 2023 schedule features five games against 2022 division champions (Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay) and one other 2022 playoff team (Baltimore). Six of their 17 games are against teams that had winning records in 2022. The Jags also will play two games in London this season – against Atlanta and Buffalo — for the first time in team history.