NFL Week 4 Must Bet Games & Expert Analysis

We have all been watching football long enough to know that it is easy to overreact to what we are seeing in the opening couple of weeks of the season.

We often see unexpected teams get off to a fast start. While the preseason favorites stumble out of the gate.

My NFL Betting Analysis in Week 4

Over the long haul, though, things have a way of leveling out and getting closer to what we expected prior to the start of the season.

I have always been of the belief that we shouldn’t judge any team until after the opening month of the season, which is where we will be at after the action of Week 4.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the upcoming games and pick out the ones that jump off the schedule.

🏆👏 @KingHenry_2 joined the list of @TomBrady's #LFG Player of the Game for his Week 3 performance!

Who will it be in Week 4 when the @Eagles take on the @Buccaneers? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/LgPckvAal1
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 23, 2024

Dallas Cowboys -216 at New York Giants +173

When: TNF, September 26, 8:15 PM, Prime Video
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

The Thursday night game brings us a divisional matchup, with the NFC East looking very much up for grabs in the early going. We are 3 weeks in and the pressure is already on the Cowboys, who will be hitting the road after losing back-to-back games in their own building. While road games are always tough, getting out of town might be the best thing for the 1-2 Cowboys. The Giants lost their opening 2 games of the season, but they did get back on track with a win this past weekend. The Cowboys are a 4 ½ point road favorite, with the total for this one set at 45.

New Orleans Saints +104 at Atlanta Falcons -127

When: Sunday, September 29, 1:00 PM, FOX
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

The NFC South is another division that looks to be wide open, with 3 of the 4 teams considered to be in with a shot at winning it. Two of those teams will meet this weekend when the Saints hit the road to face the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints looked like the bets team in the league through their opening 2 games of the season, but they came back to Earth with a loss to the Eagles this past weekend. The Falcons are 1-2 and coming off a controversial loss to the Chiefs, where a missed pass interference call essentially cost them the game. This looks like a coin flip game, with the Falcons starting as a 2-point home favorite. The point total is set at 42.

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Updated Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Minnesota Vikings +114 at Green Bay Packers -140

When: Sunday, September 29, 1:00 PM, CBS
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

One of the biggest surprises of the season has been the play of the Minnesota Vikings, and specifically that of their QB, Sam Darnold. The Vikings have looked fantastic through the opening 2 weeks, winning all 3 games, with Darnold looking like the player the Jets thought they were getting when they drafted him a few years back. This weekend, they will play a divisional game against the Packers, who are 2-1 despite losing QB, Jordan Love for a few weeks. While this one certainly won’t decide the division, it could potentially put the Vikings in total control with the win or make things tighter still if the Packers come away with the victory. The Packers are favored by 2 ½ at home, with the point total set at 43 ½.

Pittsburgh Steelers -129 at Indianapolis Colts +106

When: Sunday, September 29, 1:00 PM, CBS
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

I think it’s fair to say that the majority of the 3-0 teams are something of a surprise. I was of the belief that the Steelers would be better this season, but they are much better than I expected them to be. The defense looks like the type of unit that wins championships, although the offense is playing a bit of catch up. The Colts started the season with back-to-back losses, but they got on track with a win in Week 3, but can they carry that over into this weekend? Also, how is their young QB going to do against a defense that is at the very top of its game? The Steelers will head into Indianapolis as a modest 2-point favorite, with the total set at 40.

Philadelphia Eagles -136 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers +111

When: Sunday, September 29, 1:00 PM, FOX
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

As we mentioned earlier, the NFC East looks as though it is going to be tight all season long, assuming that the Washington Commanders can maintain their fast start. The Eagles looked set to fall to 1-2 this season, but they were able to grind out a big win on the road against the New Orleans Saints, but things will not get much easier this weekend. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened the season with wins in the first 2 weeks, looking very good in the process, but they took their first loss of the season in Week 3. This is one of the better matchups on the schedule this weekend, and it is the Eagles who are in as a modest 2 ½ point favorite, with the total set at 45.

Kansas City Chiefs -420 at LA Chargers +320

When: Sunday, September 29, 4:25 PM, CBS
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

While the 2-time defending Super Bowl champions are sitting at 3-0, they are perhaps a little lucky to be there. They have been the beneficiaries of a couple of dodgy calls over the past couple of weeks, with those referee decisions helping the Chiefs to win a pair of tight games that they might otherwise have lost had those calls not come in. Still, this is a team that continually finds a way to win. The Chargers saw their perfect start to the season come to an end in Pittsburgh this past weekend, and there have to be some concerns about the health of Justin Herbert, who was pulled from that game. The Chiefs are favored by 6 and the point total is at 39.

Buffalo Bills +110 at Baltimore Ravens -135

When: SNF, September 29, 8:20 PM, MBC / Peacock
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD

There were more than a few fans and pundits who were of the belief that the Buffalo Bills were about to take a backward step this season, but 3 weeks in, they actually look better than ever, winning all 3 of their games and racking up points in the process. This, though, is arguably their toughest test of the season to this point. The Ravens started out at 0-2, but they delivered a big performance in Dallas this past weekend, although they almost gassed yet another double-digit lead in the late stages of that one. The Ravens are currently a 2 ½ point favorite, with the total set at 46.