Longshot Betting Strategy: How to Find Value in High Odds

The best way to evaluate a longshot bet is to compare its price with a realistic estimate of its chance to win. High odds can produce a large payout, but they also usually mean the outcome is less likely. Before betting, identify the exact market, calculate its break-even probability, test your estimate against less optimistic scenarios, and choose a stake you can afford to lose.

A big payout is not proof of good value. A longshot can be worth considering at one price and a poor bet at another. No betting system, staking method, or model guarantees profit.

What Makes a Bet a Longshot?

A longshot is an outcome offered at relatively high odds because the market assigns it a comparatively low implied probability. There is no universal odds threshold that defines every longshot. Prices such as +500, +1000 and +2000 represent different payout levels and break-even rates; they do not reveal the outcome’s true chance of winning.

It is also important to distinguish a longshot from an underdog. A team can be an underdog on the moneyline without being offered at especially long odds. A team at +600 on the moneyline must win the game under that market’s rules. The same team at +7.5 points can cover the spread while losing the game. Those are different outcomes and need separate probability estimates.

For a broader explanation of how underdogs differ from favorites, see our guide to favorites vs. underdogs in sports betting. In markets with three or more possible outcomes, such as a soccer 1X2 market, positive American odds alone do not determine which selection is the favorite.

What Do +500, +1000 and +2000 Mean in Betting?

Positive American odds show how much profit a winning $100 stake would earn. For a different stake, multiply the stake by the odds and divide by 100. Total return includes both profit and the original stake. The examples below assume a winning cash wager with no deductions or special settlement terms.

Example: How much does a $10 bet at +2000 pay? A win earns $200 in profit and returns $210 including the original $10 stake. A loss costs the $10 stake. A void or refund depends on the market’s settlement rules.

How to read break-even probability

For positive American odds, calculate break-even probability by dividing 100 by the odds plus 100. At +600, the calculation is 100 ÷ (600 + 100) = 14.29%. This is the win rate needed to break even at that fixed price over time, assuming no pushes, deductions or separate costs.

The break-even rate is derived from the payout, not a prediction of what will happen. A +2000 selection does not necessarily have a 4.76% true chance of winning. It needs to win at that rate to break even at the quoted price under the stated assumptions.

How Do You Calculate Expected Value on a Longshot?

Expected value (EV) combines the possible results of a wager with their probabilities. For a simple bet that either wins or loses, multiply the chance of winning by the profit from a win, then subtract the chance of losing multiplied by the stake.

EV = (win probability × profit if won) − (loss probability × stake)

Consider a hypothetical $10 bet at +600. A win earns $60 in profit; a loss costs $10.

• If your estimated win probability is 16%: (0.16 × $60) − (0.84 × $10) = $9.60 − $8.40 = +$1.20 EV.
• If your estimated win probability is 12%: (0.12 × $60) − (0.88 × $10) = $7.20 − $8.80 = −$1.60 EV.

The same odds can produce different EV estimates because the assumed probability changes. EV is a long-run mathematical average under the assumptions—not the amount you should expect to win from one ticket.

Our guide to expected value in sports betting explains the underlying calculation in more detail.

Why line shopping matters

Suppose your estimated chance remains 16%. A $10 bet at +500 has EV of (0.16 × $50) − (0.84 × $10) = -$0.40. At +600, the same estimate gives +$1.20 EV. The price difference changes the calculation even though your probability estimate has not changed.

Compare equivalent markets and settlement rules. A regulation-time soccer wager and a qualification market are not interchangeable, and a different spread or player-prop line requires a different probability estimate. A better price helps only if it is genuinely available to you and your estimate applies to that exact ticket.

How to Stress-Test a Longshot Probability Estimate

A single estimate can make a weak bet look convincing. Test the ticket using a lower, base and upper probability scenario before deciding whether the price still makes sense. The following worksheet is an educational example, not a MyBookie forecasting model or a statistically validated confidence interval.

Hypothetical ticket: $10 at +600, with a base win estimate of 16%, a lower scenario of 14%, and an upper scenario of 18%.

What is the minimum price at a 14% win estimate?

If your estimate is 14%, fair decimal odds are 1 ÷ 0.14 = 7.1429, equivalent to approximately +614.29 American odds. At +600, the estimated EV is -$0.20 per $10. At +650, it is +$0.50 per $10 under the same 14% assumption.

This threshold is only as reliable as the probability estimate. A price above the calculated threshold does not prove the wager is valuable; it means the wager looks positive under that particular assumption.

To develop probability estimates, see how to build a sports betting model. A Monte Carlo simulation can help explore outcomes under a model’s assumptions, but more simulations cannot repair weak inputs or a poorly specified model.

Choose the Right Betting Market

Before analyzing a longshot, make sure you know exactly what the ticket requires. A moneyline, spread, player prop, future and live bet can all have different outcomes and settlement rules—even when they involve the same team or player.

For example, an MLB underdog can lose by one run and still cover +1.5 runs, while its moneyline ticket loses. The run-line wager may carry negative odds, so it is not necessarily a longshot. A higher chance of winning a spread does not automatically make it better value; compare the price with the probability of covering that specific line.

Alternate lines change the required margin. Futures can tie up funds for months. Always estimate the outcome defined by the ticket rather than applying one general underdog probability to several markets.

How Injuries, Matchups and Team Trends Should Affect Your Estimate

Recent results are a starting point, not a complete forecast. Three wins against weak opponents may tell you less than one competitive performance against a strong team. Check opponent quality, rest, workload, venue, weather and confirmed player availability where relevant.

Roster news matters when it changes expected performance. A confirmed pitching change, for example, can affect an MLB moneyline. An injury report is useful only when you understand how the player’s likely absence changes minutes, usage, matchup quality or replacement performance—and whether the current price already reflects that information.

Be careful with small samples. A short winning streak can exaggerate a team’s underlying strength, while a few losses do not automatically make a team due for a win. Coaching changes, home-underdog labels and recent head-to-head results are not evidence of value by themselves.

Use statistical tools for sports betting to test an angle, and account for the emotional bias that can come with betting on your own team. The goal is not to find a reason to back a longshot; it is to estimate the outcome as objectively as possible.

How Much Should You Stake on a Longshot?

Start with a separate betting budget that you can afford to lose without affecting rent, bills, debt payments, savings or other essential expenses. Choose a modest fixed stake or a clearly capped percentage before betting. There is no universally safe stake size, and a smaller bet does not improve the odds of the event.

For a $200 bankroll, a $2 stake is 1% of the starting balance; a $10 stake is 5%. The second wager puts five times as much money at risk on each ticket. The examples below assume every wager loses and stakes remain fixed.

Count total exposure, not just individual stakes. Three wagers that depend on the same quarterback’s health or the same game script may be strongly related. Include open futures when reviewing how much money is committed. If a sportsbook’s minimum stake exceeds your limit, skipping the wager is a reasonable decision.

How Many Losing Bets in a Row Can Happen on Longshots?

There is no fixed number of losses you should expect before a win. Suppose each bet independently has a 16% chance of winning and an 84% chance of losing. The chance that the next five specified bets all lose is 0.84⁵, or about 41.8%. The chance that the next ten all lose is about 17.5%; for the next twenty, it is about 3.1%.

These figures apply to the next specified sequence of independent bets with the same win probability. They are not the probability of seeing a losing streak somewhere in a long season of many bets; a longer betting history creates more opportunities for streaks. Correlated tickets and changing probabilities also affect the calculation.

At a constant 16% win probability, the expected number of losses before a win is 0.84 ÷ 0.16 = 5.25. The average number of bets up to and including the next win is 6.25. Those are long-run averages, not a timetable for your next winner.

A losing streak does not make the next longshot due. Avoid increasing stakes to recover losses. A progressive staking plan changes the amount at risk; it does not turn a negative-EV wager into a positive-EV one.

Flat Betting vs. the Kelly Criterion

Flat betting uses a consistent planned stake. The Kelly criterion calculates a theoretical stake based on the odds and your estimated probability of winning. Kelly can increase the stake when the estimated edge is larger, but it is especially sensitive to errors in the probability estimate.

Hypothetical example: a +600 wager

Suppose a bankroll is $500, the offered price is +600, and your estimated win probability is 16%. For a simple win-or-lose wager, the net profit per dollar staked is 6.

Kelly fraction = (b × p − q) ÷ b, where b is net profit per dollar, p is the estimated win probability and q is the estimated loss probability.

• Win probability, p: 0.16.
• Loss probability, q: 0.84.
• Kelly fraction: [(6 × 0.16) − 0.84] ÷ 6 = 0.02, or 2%.
• Full-Kelly formula output: 2% of $500 = $10.
• Quarter-Kelly formula output: one-quarter of $10 = $2.50.

These are mathematical illustrations, not personal staking recommendations. The full-Kelly output is only justified if the probability estimate and wager assumptions are sound. If the estimated win probability falls to 14%, the +600 wager has an estimated EV of -$0.20 per $10, and Kelly no longer recommends a positive stake under that estimate.

Flat betting is simpler to manage. Fractional Kelly reduces the formula’s suggested exposure, but neither method guarantees profit, prevents losing streaks or makes a poorly priced wager worth taking.

Favorite-Longshot Bias and Closing Line Value

Favorite-longshot bias describes a pattern found in some betting markets in which longshots have performed worse relative to their odds than favorites. Research on horse racing has documented this pattern, but it should not be treated as a universal rule for every sport, sportsbook or market. A particular longshot still needs to be evaluated on its own price and probability.

Closing line value (CLV) compares the odds you accepted with the closing price for the same outcome and equivalent market rules. If you take +600 and the comparable market closes at +500, you obtained a better price than the closing market offered. If it closes at +700, the price moved against your ticket.

CLV can be one useful way to review price decisions over a large sample, but it does not guarantee that a ticket will win or prove that a probability model is accurate. Compare equivalent markets and record prices consistently; a different line or settlement definition is not a clean comparison.

How Longshot Betting Differs by Sport

Golf outright bets

An outright requires a player to win the event; a top-10 finish is a different market. Consider course fit, field strength, recent performance and relevant injury information, then estimate the chance of that specific result. Check withdrawal and dead-heat terms. A tied finish can produce a reduced payout under the applicable rules.

UFC and boxing underdogs

Separate the fight winner from method-of-victory and round markets. An underdog winning by decision is a narrower outcome than winning by any permitted method. Evaluate matchup, scheduled rounds, recent activity and confirmed weigh-in information, and review how a draw or no-contest is settled. A perceived striking or grappling advantage must translate into the exact market you are betting.

Horse racing and Kentucky Derby longshots

Assess pace, field size, surface, distance and race conditions. In pari-mutuel pools, odds can change before the pool closes, so displayed odds may not lock in the final payout. Fixed-odds wagers work differently. Before evaluating a Kentucky Derby longshot, identify the wagering format and check the applicable terms.

Does each-way betting help with longshots?

An each-way wager combines a win bet with a place bet. Where offered, a $5 each-way bet commonly means $5 to win plus $5 to place, for $10 total. The place payout depends on the stated fraction of the win odds, the qualifying positions and the market terms. A place return does not necessarily recover the full outlay, and availability should never be assumed.

There is no universally best sport for longshots. Focus on markets you understand well enough to estimate probabilities and compare prices, rather than applying one sport’s assumptions to another.

Should You Put Longshots in Parlays?

A parlay combines multiple selections into one ticket. Every leg must win under the ticket’s rules for a standard parlay to pay. The potential payout rises, but so does the difficulty of getting every selection right. Combining several weak prices does not automatically create value.

For two independent selections that each have a 16% chance of winning, the chance both win is 0.16 × 0.16 = 2.56%. The fair combined decimal odds under those assumptions are 1 ÷ 0.0256 = 39.0625, before accounting for market costs or pricing margins.

Two hypothetical +600 prices have decimal odds of 7.00 each. Multiplying them gives 49.00 as a mathematical combined price, but a sportsbook may offer a different payout or restrict correlated combinations. Check the actual accepted ticket price. Same-game selections and other related outcomes require a joint probability estimate rather than assuming independence.

Straight bets make it easier to evaluate each price and track each result separately. A larger parlay payout is not, by itself, evidence of better expected value.

Should You Hedge a Longshot Future?

Hedging means placing another wager to reduce exposure to an existing ticket. It may reduce the possible gain while requiring additional money. It does not automatically maximize expected value, and it is not always available at a useful price.

Consider a simplified hypothetical example. You have a $10 future at +2000, which would earn $200 in profit if it wins. At the final stage, suppose there are exactly two mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes and the opposing outcome is available at -200, equivalent to decimal odds of 1.50. A $140 hedge on the opponent would return $210 if that opponent wins.

• Original selection wins: $200 original profit minus the $140 losing hedge stake = $60 net profit.
• Opponent wins: $70 hedge profit minus the $10 original stake = $60 net profit.

This equal-result example depends on both bets being accepted and settling on opposite outcomes with matching rules. A draw, void, different market scope, stake limit or special deduction can change the result. A cash-out offer is a separate decision; compare it with your updated estimate and the terms rather than assuming it is automatically good value.

What to Check Before a Live Longshot Bet

Live odds can change quickly as the score, clock, player availability and game state change. If a soccer team concedes early and its price lengthens, ask whether the market has overreacted—or whether the score and remaining time genuinely reduce the team’s chance.

Check the current score, clock, player status, market scope, accepted odds, limits and settlement conditions. A 90-minute result market differs from a qualification market. Our soccer draw betting guide explains why the possibility of a draw matters in a three-outcome market.

Live feeds can lag and markets can suspend. Confirm the accepted price on the ticket and review the applicable obvious-error and grading rules. A price or probability estimate from moments earlier may no longer fit the current situation.

MyBookie Longshot Ticket Checklist

Before confirming a wager, run through these five checks:

1. Define the outcome. Confirm the selection, event, market, line and scoring period.
2. Verify the accepted price. Calculate break-even probability and profit from the price shown on the actual ticket.
3. Check settlement rules. Review overtime, draws, participation, completion, withdrawals and dead heats where relevant.
4. Review affordability and shared risk. Count the stake and any related open tickets or futures. Do not bet money needed for essentials.
5. Keep a record. Note your evidence, probability estimate, price, timestamp, closing price when comparable, and final result.

Consult MyBookie rules for general account, payout and rollover information, and review the applicable sportsbook wagering rules and individual market terms for grading details. These resources serve different purposes; a general account rules page does not necessarily explain every sport’s settlement conditions.

For more help understanding odds, markets and bankroll decisions, visit the MyBookie Betting Academy.

Compare the Price, Then Decide Whether to Bet

A longshot deserves consideration only when the price justifies the risk. Define the market, compare your probability estimate with the break-even rate, stress-test the estimate, and choose an affordable stake. If the numbers do not support the wager, passing is a valid decision.

When you are ready, review the available MyBookie sports betting markets and compare the accepted price with your estimate. A large potential return should never replace a clear reason for the wager, a careful look at the rules and a stake you can afford to lose.

Sources and Calculation Notes

• Snowberg and Wolfers, “Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is It Risk-Love or Misperceptions?”, Journal of Political Economy, 2010. This research examines horse-racing markets; it should not be interpreted as proof of the same effect in every sportsbook or sport.
• J. L. Kelly Jr., “A New Interpretation of Information Rate”, Bell System Technical Journal, 1956. Foundational work underlying logarithmic-growth staking. The simplified Kelly equation in this article is an application to a binary wager.
• Odds, payouts, expected values, staking amounts, hedge outcomes and losing-run probabilities in this guide are hypothetical mathematical examples, not current betting prices or forecasts.
• Simple EV and Kelly examples assume a win-or-loss wager with no push, void, dead heat or separate cost. The losing-run examples assume independent bets with a constant 16% win probability.

MyBookie: Bet On Anything. Anywhere. Anytime.

Important: Sports betting involves risk. No strategy guarantees results, and managing exposure is essential.

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About the Author

Henry Watkins

Henry Watkins is a Sports Writer at MyBookie. Originally from Scotland and currently residing in Metro Atlanta with his wife, Penny, Henry covers competitive and professional sports as well as the business of sports. In addition to his sports writing, he is an author of horror fiction, including Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.

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