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If you’re like most online sports betting enthusiasts, you probably cringe whenever you see one of those mismatches that offers you the chance to wager on or bet against an absolutely enormous point spread. No worries, I’ve got you covered as we examine the optimal strategy for picking or avoiding large betting spreads. With that said, let’s get started.
Editorial Note
This content explains how to approach large point spreads in sports betting, including the risks of overconfidence, emotional wagering, and chasing losses. It is intended for educational purposes and does not guarantee betting results or outcomes.
Quick Answer
The best strategy when facing large betting spreads is to avoid overconfidence and evaluate whether the favorite can realistically cover the number. Bettors should study ATS trends, understand key scoring margins, and avoid emotional or chase bets before wagering on heavily favored teams.
Here’s Our Optimal Strategy for Picking or Avoiding Large Betting Spreads
Trust me when I say I know from firsthand knowledge all about being an overconfident jackass of a bettor that thinks every pick you make is a sure-fire lock. Never, ever get overconfident on a high point spread.
For example, some bettors will see a line that feature mighty Alabama minus something like 38 points against a tiny school like Georgia Southern and think, ‘Humph…the Tide are going to roll all over Charleston’ and back them to cover the high spread.
Well, first and foremost, bookies aren’t in business to lose money. And secondly, how about when Alabama routs Charleston Southern but wins by ‘only’ 35 points? Do your ATS ‘homework’ on both teams involved in any high point spread matchup before making an overconfident pick!
Understanding how sportsbooks evaluate heavily favored teams can make a huge difference when betting these matchups, which is why it’s worth learning the differences between favorites and underdogs and the strategies behind each approach before making your pick.
Chasing
Are you ‘chasing’ an ATS win and being lured into what is known as a ‘trap’ bet? Often times, a bettor sees a line that oddsmakers have ‘dangled’ in front of them like an enticing carrot and make a wager that goes against their good betting sense.
What looks, at first glance, like a good wager, can often turn into a gut-wrenching loss that w ultimately find out what was a trap game affair. Make sure you’re looking for the best value on the board, as opposed to chasing a line that maybe has a 50-50 chance of cashing in!
Emotional Betting
Never, ever, ever, under any circumstances whatsoever, make an ‘emotional’ bet! Often times this is as simple as betting on your favorite team, which, by the way, I highly recommend as part of my lifelong betting strategy.
Often times, a bettor will make an emotional pick on one of their favorite teams or bet on a team that might have cost them recently, thinking that that specific team ‘owes’ them.
Well, I can tell you that making emotional bets is almost always a losing proposition that leaves bettors ticked off for making the wager in the first place.
If you’re still developing your betting discipline, these lessons on how to start sports betting can help you build a stronger foundation before taking on large spreads and other high-risk wagers.
Know Your Numbers
Did You Know that… in NFL football, the most common margins of victory are 3 and 7? After those two figures, the next most common margins of victory are 6, 10, and 4.
However, these numbers only account for approximately 40 percent of all winning margins, and oddsmakers are fully aware of this. Bookies know that 60 percent of all NFL games never fall on the aforementioned figures, and you need to know it too!
MyBookie: Bet On Anything. Anywhere. Anytime.
About the Author
Since 2008, D.S. Williamson has written about sports and sports handicapping. His philosophy is value-based, meaning statistics and other handicapping factors are only useful when compared with the available wagering odds. He believes bankroll management and consistently making value-based wagers are the most important factors separating successful sports bettors from unsuccessful bettors.
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