Houston Texans Betting Odds, Lines & Analysis for the Season

The Houston Texans were one of the biggest surprise teams of the 2023 NFL season as they were expected to be one of the league’s worst clubs but instead won the AFC South title thanks to a stellar 2023 draft.

What to expect from the Texans in 2024?

Expert Prediction: Over 9.5 wins, Texans repeat as AFC South champs

Super Bowl Odds to Win: +1650
Odds to win AFC: +840
AFC South Odds to Win: +105 favorites
Regular-season win total: 9.5

Last Season

Houston’s fortunes as a franchise completely turned around because of a spectacular draft by GM Nick Caserio in 2023 when he took Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud at No. 2 overall, traded up to get the No. 3 overall pick and took Alabama pass-rusher Will Anderson Jr. and also stole rookie receiver Nathaniel Dell at No. 69 overall out of the University of Houston.

Stroud had one of the great rookie seasons in history for a quarterback and was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year as Houston finished 10-7 overall and won the AFC South. The Texans clinched the division on the season’s final day when it won 23-19 at Indianapolis and Jacksonville lost at Tennessee. Even if the Jags had won, Houston would have been a wild-card team.

The Texans then blasted Cleveland 45-14 in the wild-card round. Stroud became the youngest quarterback to win a playoff game after throwing for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Stroud threw for 236 yards and three touchdowns before halftime as the Texans built a 24-14 lead. At 22 years and 102 days old, Stroud passed Michael Vick, who was 22 years, 192 days old in 2002 when his Falcons beat the Packers.

Houston is one of four active franchises to never reach a Super Bowl and those dreams ended in a 34-10 loss in Baltimore in the Divisional Round as Stroud has a bit of a tough game against a stellar Ravens defense. Still a hugely successful season.

Stroud, combined with rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans, became just the third rookie quarterback-head coach duo to win a playoff game since 1950, joining Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh (2008) and Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan (2009).

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CJ Stroud Stats

Stroud finished his rookie season completing 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns to five interceptions for a 100.8 passer rating, leading the NFL in pass yards per game (273.8) and having the lowest interception rate (1.0%). The passing yards were the third-most by a rookie quarterback in NFL history. He became only the third quarterback in the past 50 seasons to lead the NFL in pass yards per game and touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.6, minimum 10 starts). Stroud was first player in franchise history to win Offensive Rookie of the Year as Houston matched the number of victories it had in the three prior seasons combined before it drafted Stroud (2020-22).

Will Anderson Jr.

Anderson was the Defensive Rookie of the Year, the third player in franchise history to win that award. Anderson’s head coach, DeMeco Ryans, won the award for the Texans in 2006 and Brian Cushing captured the award in 2009. Anderson finished with 59 pressures on the season, the third-most by a rookie over the last five seasons — trailing only Nick Bosa (80 in 2009) and Micah Parsons (67 in 2021). Anderson finished with 45 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 22 quarterback hits, 7.0 sacks, and a pass defensed in 15 games — leading a Texans defense that improved from 24.7 points per game allowed in 2022 to 20.8 points per game allowed in 2023.

DeMeco Ryans

Ryans was a top NFL Coach of the Year candidate but finished second to Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski via the Associated Press, although the Professional Football Writers of America gave Ryans its award. He was named the PFWA’s Assistant Coach of the Year honoree in 2022 while with San Francisco.

Houston’s Offensive

Houston made two big moves this offseason to beef up the offense around Stroud in trading for two Pro Bowlers in receiver Stefon Diggs from Buffalo and running back Joe Mixon from Cincinnati. Mixon, 27, was traded to the Texans in exchange for a 2024 seventh-round draft pick. Initially, the Bengals were planning to release him after reaching a two-year, $8 million contract with running back Zack Moss. Houston gave Mixon a three-year, $27 million extension. The Texans hope Mixon, who rushed for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns, can bolster their 2023 rushing attack that ranked just 28th in yards per game (92.7).

The Texans gave up a few draft picks to get Diggs, who led the NFL in receptions during his four seasons with the Bills with a combined 445. Diggs is one of two receivers to be selected to the Pro Bowl in each of the past four seasons, along with Tyreek Hill. Now Houston has a stellar WR trio of Diggs, Dell and Nico Collins.

In the 2023 season, Dell was on pace for 1,205 receiving yards before suffering a season-ending injury in the first quarter against the Broncos in Week 13. Dell and Stroud finished with the eighth-most passing yards for a first-year quarterback and wide receiver duo (709). Collins ranked eighth in receiving yards (1,297) and had eight touchdowns.

Against the Bears

Houston opens the season as a 1.5-point favorite at Indianapolis with the home opener in Week 2 vs. the Bears as we will see Stroud vs. the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite in No. 1 overall pick and QB Caleb Williams. The Texans are tied for the fourth-hardest schedule in the league (opponents had a .526 winning percentage in 2023). They have six prime-time games after just three standalone games combined from 2021-23.