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NFL preseason betting tends to attract two types of bettors: those who avoid the uncertainty and those who believe careful research can uncover profitable opportunities. Before using advanced strategies, it helps to understand how NFL preseason betting works and why exhibition games require a different approach.
Editorial Note
This guide explains NFL preseason betting strategies using coaching plans, player rotations, roster depth, historical trends, and market movement. Preseason roles and playing time can change quickly, so bettors should verify current team announcements and sportsbook lines before wagering. This content is educational and does not guarantee profitable results.
Quick Answer
The best NFL preseason betting strategies focus on coaching intent, quarterback rotations, roster depth, expected playing time, and week-specific matchups. Because exhibition-game lineups are unpredictable, bettors should confirm current information, compare betting odds, and remain selective rather than relying only on regular-season power ratings or historical trends.
What Makes NFL Preseason Betting Different?
Unlike regular-season NFL betting, preseason wagering depends heavily on coaching intent, roster depth, quarterback rotations, and how long starters are expected to play. Traditional team power ratings matter less when backups and players competing for roster spots handle most of the game.
Coaches often reveal how many quarters their starters will play or which quarterbacks will enter at each stage. A team using an experienced NFL quarterback in the fourth quarter may have a meaningful advantage over one relying on an undrafted free agent. The following seven NFL preseason betting strategies explain what to evaluate before placing a wager.
The Trends
No matter which subscription you choose in the NFL preseason betting strategy, it is important that you look at what happened in the previous seasons. As much as past trends don’t entirely predict how teams will perform in the current season, they always have a story to tell, which may influence your decision. The reversal trends to observe are the rate at which underdogs managed to cover the point spread, or how the favorites covered the number. Taking a look at these tactics will prove to be a wise decision.
Favorites VS Underdogs
From 2008 to 2011, favorites were usually poor bets as the number of times they proved their worth translated to only 45.7% as they went 112-133-12 against the number. However, for the seasons that followed from 2012 to date, they have been impressive going 104-86-4, which translates to 54.7%. You may also want to look at the performance of home underdogs as their statistics might tell an entirely different story.
Weekly Results
Most people make the mistake of looking at the preseason betting as a whole. The best way to go about it, is analyzing the teams individually and their week by week performances to get a clear picture of how their season was. It can also be misleading to look at the season as a whole when analyzing the underdogs of six points or more. A bettor who manages to break down the preseason into individual weeks stands a greater chance of winning than one who doesn’t.
The Sitting Starters
Different coaches have different trends that they follow in the NFL preseason. Often, most starters don’t play a lot in the opening week of the preseason, although they at times feature in the second week. Most of the coaches see week 3 as an opportunity to tune-up the starters, who will play for the first half of the game only. However, they are not played in the fourth game, something which has an effect on the tendencies of the point spread.
The Totals
Checking the totals in the NFL preseason betting strategy is also another important thing. You will discover that, most of the time, the totals that are posted for the preseason are much lower, 36-39 mostly. This is because most of the players in the offensive line are preserved to avoid injury and fatigue. You can get info on which teams will be sitting their starters, and you can build your betting strategy around this information.
Since the preseason games have low points, teasers become even more valuable. If you place a bet on a 6 point teaser, in a game that has a total of 6, then these 6 points become more valuable than they would have been in a game that has a total of 50 or more.
Game Selection
If you choose to bet in the preseason, you must be selective on the teams that you choose. Most of the results in these games are mere luck, making them a crap shoot. However, there may be a couple of games where you can find a competitive edge by looking at past trends, coaches decisions, line movement and so on. When an opportunity appears stronger than the rest, the Kelly Criterion for NFL betting can help determine a disciplined stake based on the estimated edge and available bankroll. The bettors who take their time to look at the various influencing factors will likely make better decisions than those who just bet because it is the NFL.
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About the Author
Since 2008, D.S. Williamson has written about sports and sports handicapping. His philosophy is value-based, meaning statistics and other handicapping factors are only useful when compared with the available wagering odds. He believes bankroll management and consistently making value-based wagers are the most important factors separating successful sports bettors from unsuccessful bettors.
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