JUN 01 - Understanding The 10 Commandments Of NFL Betting

Understanding The 10 Commandments Of NFL Betting

Rules, rules, rules! Whether you were in elementary school, at home with mum or an adult in the work place, everyone has rules they need to follow. Some people love them and have no trouble abiding by them while others are far more militant (like me) and simply don’t like being told what to do.

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Nevertheless, if you’re already an avid sports betting enthusiast or thinking of making your first venture into the often fun-filled, but often mine-laced industry, then you should know that there are a bunch of do’s and don’ts that you should stick to, no matter the sport you may be betting on. For the sake of impact, let’s call these age-old rules, the Ten Commandments of Sports Betting.

In Depth Analysis On The Understanding The 10 Commandments Of NFL Betting


I. Thou Shalt Remove Love

Don’t go getting yourself all upset…I’m not talking about removing love from your life people. I’m talking about removing the ‘heart’ from any sports wager you may make. As I tell betting enthusiasts all the time, if there’s one thing you never, ever want to do under any circumstance, it’s make a wager with your ‘heart’ instead of your head.

The easiest way to stick to this betting commandment is to simply avoid placing a wager on your favorite sports team or teams in each sport whether it’s football, basketball or another sport. Countless times I’ve seen bettors make poor wagers based on their biased love for a specific team as opposed to making the wager based on analysis, trends and other more responsible methods. If you don’t like parting with your money (who does?) then never bet with your heat. Simply put, remove love from your sports betting equations.

II. Thou Shalt Line Shop

Thou shalt line shop for the best odds and prices available. This is a business and you need to make your wagers like an astute businessman that is looking to maximize profit as opposed to making a series of whimsical wagers on the first set of odds you come across. Join as many sportsbooks as possible in an effort to maximize your chances of finding the best odds possible.

III. Thou Shalt Never ‘Over’ Bet

Set a bankroll and stick to it like your life depends on it. For instance, let’s say you like to wager $100 a week, but you took a pair of costly losses in the early part of the week that put you at your $100 limit. Well, you probably don’t want to go making an extra wager or two that could drop you to -330 or -440 for the week. Never over-bet, no matter how deep of a hole you’re in or how much of a ‘sure thing’ you think your next pick may be.

IV. Thou Shalt Befriend Research

While there are a multitude of factors that go into making a sports wager, they generally all start with some sharp research. Whether you’re looking at Over/Under scoring trends, ATS trends or home and away statistical analysis, you’ll find yourself much better off with each and every wager you make if you take the time to do some research on both teams involved, not just the team you plan on backing.

V. Thou Shalt Weigh Psychological Factors

V. Thou Shalt Weigh Psychological Factors

Some sports betting enthusiasts think winning and losing is all about the team that has better players and more attractive trends, but I say you should never forget about the psychological side of sports and how the psychological mindset of a team or particular player can either carry them to victory or sink their ship their hopes faster than an Italian mobster wearing cement shoes.

For example, just look back at the final six games of the Green Bay Packers’ 2016 campaign when future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers announced that the Pack needed to – and were going to – run the table to get into the postseason.

Green Bay’s overall psychological mindset was basically, ‘we’re not going to lose – to anyone.’ Well, if you were paying attention and you know a little about Aaron Rodgers’ history, then you would have known it was the perfect time to back Green Bay. By the way, Rodgers and company went 6-0 SU and a near-perfect 5-1 ATS over their final six games while beating four playoff teams along the way. Remember, there is often a psychological aspect surrounding each contest that could or already has, decided the outcome.

VI. Thou Shalt Factor in Injuries

If you’re not considering injuries in your sports betting picks, then you’re just being foolish. It doesn’t matter if it’s LeBron James that is out of the lineup for the Cleveland Cavaliers or the starting left tackle for the Tennessee Titans, injuries can have a major effect on a matchup and you need to know who’s healthy and who’s not.

VII. Thou Shalt Back Guardians

No…I’m not talking about the Guardians of the Galaxy for all of you Groot lovers out there. I’m talking about the fact that, more often than not, defense still wins championships – in every sport.

I know everyone loves high scoring offenses, but defense still gets it done – or maybe you forgot the New England Patriots led the NFL in points allowed last season? Sure, there are always going to be some exceptions, but for the most part, the team with the superior defense still comes out on top far more often than not.

VIII. Thou Shalt Understand Home Field Advantage

Playing at home or on the road has a far bigger psychological impact on players – and referees than you might imagine. Players that are playing at home are likely well-rested sleeping in the comforts of their own homes and hey, let’s be honest about it, no referee wants to make a horrific, game-changing call in front of some raucous home fans that lands him on the front pages of sports sections across the globe. Travel, weather and even line changes in hockey can all be affected by home-field or home-ice advantage.

IX. Thou Shalt Not Chase

Chasing losses is one of the worst mistakes a sports bettor can make. Never chase losses, meaning don;t make a wager or series of wagers just to make up for a few losing wagers, particularly if you hadn’t planned on making the ‘extra’ wagers that week. Remember, when it comes to sports betting you have to take a few bad days along with the good while learning how to maximize your chances of having more good days than bad. Remember, you should always have the games you plan on betting on in mind. Never make hasty, loss-chasing wagers that could cost you in the long run!

X. Thou Shalt Never Commit Gluttony

Just because you’ve made a series of winning wagers, it does not, repeat, not, guarantee another victory just because you’re on a roll. While there’s a fine line between riding a winning streak and knowing when to walk away, you need to understand that the law of averages in the sports betting industry say that you’re not going to keep having perfect 6-0 or bankroll-boosting 5-1 weeks. If you plan on making six wagers a week and you went 5-1 on them, then you may not want to go adding another six wagers in the hopes of doubling up your winnings, especially when you feel like those extra wagers only have a sos-so chance of playing out as you expect as opposed to the ‘rock-solid’ picks that helped you cash in already. Sportsbooks are in business to make money and you need to know that. Enjoy your victories, but remember not to get too greedy, because greed has a way of coming back to bite you when you least expect it. Besides, who want to mess up a perfect 6-0 week anyway?