Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman throw down for the third time in their careers on Saturday when Edwards puts his strap on the line against Usman. Kamaru won the first bout in the soon to be trilogy while Edwards upset Usman in the second fight to take away the title. Will Usman regain his belt as the big time chalk?

Keep reading for UFC betting lines, analysis, and free picks for the five main card bouts at UFC 286 on March 18.  

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 Betting Analysis for the Main Card Bouts

When: Saturday, Mar. 18 at 5:00 pm ET
Where: The O2 Arena, London, England
TV / Streaming: ESPN+/ESPN PPV

Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze

UFC Odds: Marvin Vettori -280 vs. Roman Dolidze +230
Weight class: Welterweight

18-6-1 Marvin Vettori takes a class drop in terms of opponent talent. Vettori has lost 2-of-3, but 1 of the losses was versus Israel Adesanya in a championship bout. Marvin is 2-0 via knockout or technical knockout wins and a fantastic 9-0 via submission victories.

Roman Dolidze can upset the favorite. Dolidze has 2 inches height and reach advantages. Roman is 7-0 via TKO or KO and 3-0 via submission wins. If Roman keeps the fight off the ground, he’ll have the advantage. The odds make Dolidze an overlay.

UFC 286 Main Card Pick: Roman Dolidze +230 | Bet Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the bout

Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill

UFC Odds: Jennifer Maia +150 vs. Casey O’Neill -175
Weight class: Women’s Flyweight

The odds suggest Jennifer Maia fights well in this. But Maia is at a big time disadvantage. At least physically, she is.

Favorite Casey O’Neill not only has a 2 inches height advantage, but Casey also has a massive 5 inches reach advantage. Also, O’Neill is 9-0.

Casey has beaten 3 of her opponents via technical knockout or knockout. She’s forced 2 of her opponents to tap out. Maia has more experience but she heads into this having lost 3 of her last 5. O’Neill gets it done.

UFC 286 Main Card Pick: Casey O’Neill | Bet Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the bout

Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena

UFC Odds: Gunnar Nelson -370 vs. Bryan Barberena +290
Weight class: Welterweight

It’s going to be tough for Bryan Barberena to beat Gunnar Nelson. The underdog in this is just 2-2 via submission wins. Not only that, but Barberena lost to Rafael Dos Anjos via submission in his last.

Gunnar Nelson has lost 3-of-5. However, Nelson is a fantastic 12-0 via submission. When the fight goes Gunnar’s way, when it ends up on the ground, Nelson has a massive advantage. This bout should end up on the ground.

UFC 286 Main Card Pick: Gunnar Nelson | Bet Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the bout

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev

UFC Odds: Justin Gaethje +190 vs. Rafael Fiziev -230
Weight class: Lightweight

Popular Justin Gaethje offers excellent odds to beat Rafael Fiziev. The problem is that even at +190, Justin is an underlay.

Gaethje has fought three times since a May 9, 2020 victory over Tony Ferguson. Gaethje lost to hall of famer Khabib Nurmagomedov on October 24, 2020.

Justin then beat Michael Chandler in 2021. The underdogs last fight happened in May 2022. It ended in a submission loss to Charles Oliveira.

Fiziev is 12-1. He’s 8-1 via TKO or KO. The favorite in this hasn’t tasted defeat since a 2019 bout versus Magomed Mustafaev. Rafael gets the win.  

UFC 286 Main Card Pick: Rafael Fiziev | Bet Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the bout

UFC 286 Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman

UFC Odds: Leon Edwards +230 vs. Kamaru Usman -280
Weight class: UFC Welterweight Title

Champ Leon Edwards used a last second knockout of Usman to win the belt. If not for the heroics, Kamaru would have probably won the fight, which is the reason the former champ is the favorite in this.

The thing is, Edwards is a very good fighter. His last loss came in 2015 in the first match against Usman. Leon knows he must do some things differently to continue to wear the welterweight strap. The odds make the champ more than playable.  

UFC 286 Pick Main Bout: Leon Edwards +230 | Bet Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

UFC 286 Fight Card

UFC 286 Countdown

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