Group F chalk Belgium is in a must win situation. The pre-World Cup Group F chalk beat Canada in their first match, but lost by 2 goals to Morocco in their second. If Belgium doesn’t beat Croatia, they have no chance of making it to the Round of 16. Croatia must also play for the win because the Croatians are in a 4-4 tie with Morocco. Which team wins one of the group stage’s more important matches? Check out FIFA World Cup Odds, analysis, and a free pick for Croatia versus Belgium. 

2022 FIFA World Cup Betting Analysis: Croatia vs Belgium Group F Matchup

FIFA World Cup Qatar: Group F  – Croatia versus Belgium

• When: Thursday, Dec. 1 at 10:00 am ET

• Where: Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium, Al Rayyan, Qatar

• TV/Streaming: FOX 

• Handicap Odds: Belgium -0.5 +151 / Croatia +0.5 -196 

• Moneyline Odds: Croatia +171 / Belgium +160 / Draw +238

• Total Odds: O 2.5 -102 / U 2.5 -125

Why Croatia is a good play versus Belgium

Croatia is playing like one of the tournament’s top teams, which makes sense. Leading up to the WC, Croatia had beaten teams like Denmark, Austria, and Saudi Arabia. Among that group, only Austria failed to qualify for the World Cup.

The 0-0 draw versus Morocco threw up red flags. But it turns out that Morocco is a good enough team to beat Belgium by 2 goals. So Croatia drew versus a more than solid squad. 

The 4-1 win over Canada impresses because the Croatians yielded the first goal. After giving up an early goal to Canada, Croatia dominated in every way imaginable. 

Croatia Last 5

• W – 4-1 vs. Canada
• D – 0-0 vs. Morocco
• W – 0-1 vs. Saudi Arabia
• W – 1-3 vs. Austria
• W – 2-1 vs. Denmark

Croatia Predicted Starting Lineup

• Livakovic
• Gvardiol
• Lovren
• Barisic
• Stanisic
• Brozovic
• Kovacic
• Modric
• Budimir
• Perisic
• Vlasic

Why Belgium is a good play versus Croatia

The Belgians have too much talent to not make it to the Round of 16. Belgium beat Canada 1-0 in their first match even though Canada outplayed them.

It’s anybody’s guess as to how Morocco dusted the Belgians by 2 goals in Belgium’s last. Perhaps, like most World Cup fans, Belgium underestimated Morocco.

In any case, Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, and the other stars on Belgium’s team know they face a must win situation on Thursday. If Belgium doesn’t step it up, they’re going home to a nation full of disappointed fans. So we should expect the Belgians to fight hard for a knockout stage berth. 

Belgium Last 5

• L – 0-2 vs. Morocco
• W – 1-0 vs. Canada
• L – 1-2 vs. Egypt
• L – 1-0 vs. Netherlands
• W – 2-1 vs. Wales

Belgium Predicted Starting Lineup

• Courtois
• Alderweireld
• Vertonghen
• Debast
• Witsel
• Tielemans
• Lukebakio
• Meunier
• Batshuayi
• Hazard
• De Bruyne

Final Betting Analysis: Croatia vs Belgium

Even if Belgium plays their absolute best game, they should struggle to win this. The Belgians controlled possession 67% to 33% in the loss against Morocco.

Belgium took 10 shots and 3 on goal. They still lost by 2. The reason? De Bruyne, again, played striker.

Kevin is best in midfield, but without Romelu Lukaku, Belgium doesn’t have a legit striker. So unless Belgium switches up the lineup and puts De Bruyne at his natural position, midfield, Belgium will provide another disappointing effort.

Croatia is on fire. Modric, Perisic, Kramaric and the rest are a cohesive unit. Croatia wins.     

World Cup Pick: Croatia +171

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