A Look at the Best Football Handicapping Techniques

Insane Betting Myths that are Actually True – September 2 Edition

Written by on September 2, 2016

There are plenty of different tips that professional handicappers use when advising bettors to wager in the betting lines, and one of the constantly recurring themes in most betting forums is that gamblers should keep away from myths. Here, we aren’t preaching a different gospel; we are all for shunning most of these myths. I mean, why would I believe these constant talks about sportsbooks fixing games with players and teams when I practically live off the money I make every day in my betting endeavors? Yes, I know games are rigged, like the way New England’s Tom Brady liaised with whoever to do whatever on his footballs in that game against the Colts, but to the best of my knowledge—and I know a lot—there is no sportsbook that is yet to be implicated in that Deflategate scandal. Just think of it, if Brady knew that he’d get a lot of advantage from underinflated balls, don’t you think he’d have conspired with a handful of sportsbook odds to benefit from it being the “winner” that he is? Anyway, that’s besides what I am trying to put across; my point is that most myths are useless and time-wasting, but some of them—like the ones detailed below—are actually true.

Analyzing The Insane Betting Myths That Are Actually True


Lines Movements are More Influenced by the Market than Teams

While teams strengths, the manner in which they play and issues such as injuries and suspensions influence betting lines; most line movements are largely based on the public betting action and opinions, along with Wiseguy money. This is also true for popular teams like the Golden State Warriors in the NBA or the New England Patriots in the NFL, who tend attract a lot of action on sportsbooks as favorites, with the market pounding hard on them and often leading to a drop in their lines.

Most Gamblers Bet the OVER

There’s probably nothing insane about this, but to think that over 70 percent of recreational bettors, especially those who are new to the betting world, I are estimated to bet on OVER is just plain crazy. With so much money spent on sports like basketball, soccer and hockey on the defensive side of the ball, you’d expect bettors to at least consider that defenses will figure in games and lead to a number of UNDERs. Fortunately or unfortunately, research has it that most people love high-scoring games and that often influences their betting decisions, as they channel their expectations into the betting lines and wager mostly on the OVER, even in instances that it is ill-advised to do so. But then again, you wouldn’t really blame these bettors, would you? I mean, with players like Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo known to be goal-machines in soccer and the likes of Stephen Curry known to light it up in the NBA, your mind can easily be wired to expect high-scores whenever such players take to the field.

Betting Trends in College Sports are Usually Sharper than in the Pros

Going by the competitive nature of sports in the Pros, going on long winnings streaks or keeping certain trends intact is usually very hard. In college sports, it’s the exact opposite, with most dominant teams staying dominant year-in, year-out while the underwhelming schools continue to struggle, irrespective of roster turnovers. A good example here is the Florida State Seminoles football team that won 29 straight games between 2012–2014, including a national championship in the 2012-13 season. The other example is the Kansas Jayhawks basketball team that hasn’t won the national championship since 2008, but boasts of a ridiculous 206–9 ( .958) win record at their home court, the Allen Fieldhouse, under head coach Bill Self, a record that includes win streaks of 69, 33, and a currently-active streak of 40 entering the 2016 season. When you play Kansas at home, it is therefore almost given that the Jayhawks will be winning that game.

First Games in the Pro Leagues are Risky to Bet On

On one hand, the fact that teams are often in transition during the preseason or at the start of the season comes with the advantage that you can find lines that aren’t so sharp, which can lead to good profits. On the other hand, surprises come aplenty during the start of the season, including false-starters, underrated teams playing well and overrated teams underwhelming with iffy performances. As such, it is advisable to be keep away from these lines—like NBA and NFL preseason—unless you are really sure that you’ve covered your bases.