Identifying When to Stay Away from Betting Favorites

Bookmakers, as many of you already know, are in the business of setting odds and making money, depending on how your wagers go. The more you lose, the more they gain… so although the majority of online sports betting lines give a clear depiction of the real betting situation on the ground, some lines—whether for favorites or underdogs—are inflated to ensure some margin of profitability for the bookmakers.

At any given time you want to bet, your job, therefore as a bettor, is to study trends and figure out how to beat the Oddsmakers and bookmakers, especially when applying an optimal strategy for live betting odds that helps you identify when pricing shifts create or remove value. This type of structured approach is what drives long-term profitability, as outlined in methods to improve your betting income, where disciplined execution and price awareness matter more than simply backing the most likely winner. That, essentially, is what we are trying to do in this article, as we address when it’s best to stay away from betting favorites…

Core takeaway: Not all favorites are worth betting—context, value, and timing matter more than public perception.

Everyone Loves Favorites, But…

Placing wagers on favorites is the most common strategy of betting, and the best part about it is that it can be done by anyone. All one has to figure out is who is the favorite on the sports betting board and then place a bet…

Even more agreeably, favored teams or athletes are often the strongest ones in their respective contests, so they often emerge victorious.

However, over time, you are bound to realize that favorites are not the best option to go with in your sports betting picks. Below are some reasons and pointers you may want to take note of when thinking about betting of favorites in sports betting odds:

When to Avoid Betting Favorites

1-Poor Current Form

However good a team is, you should be cautions when you notice that they are not having a good run in their recent games. A good example here is the Houston Rockets in the NBA, who have been very shaky both at home and on the road this year.

If you see such a team favored on the betting boards, ensure that you rigorously assess them to find if there are indeed any strong reasons to go against their bad form. Situations like these are exactly why understanding how to wager teams with lousy season starts can help you avoid backing a favorite simply based on name value instead of current performance.

2-Bad History with a Particular Opponent

This is the classic tale of history working against a team, or at least affecting the psychology of players/teams that have been losing to a particular opponent. The Kansas Jayhawks, in the NCAAB lines, are a good example of this…

Bill Self and his Jayhawks team RARELY lose at home, a fact that is affirmed by the manner in which Kansas has lost just 9 games at home in over 210 games.

A good number of teams in the Big 12, as you’d expect, have never tasted any form of victory against the Jayhawks in Kansas. If you see such a visiting team favored in the lines over Kansas, steer clear from it…

3-Injuries and Suspensions

This is as simple as it sounds. If a team is betting favorite, yet it is missing one or a number of its key players due to injuries or suspensions, you can be sure that the impact will be felt, often negatively.

So rather than sink in your bets with the short-handed team, it is most advisable to keep away from such a team and save your money for something else.

4-The Letdown Effect

Often, when a team or a player is coming off a big win or a demoralizing defeat, they tend to shift down the gears in their next game. In the scenario of a big win, complacency tends to creep in, making the players lazy, or the bookmakers can inflate the lines due to public euphoria.

In the instance of a demoralizing defeat, let’s say a mid-season loss that eliminates an NFL team from playoff contention, the zeal to fight in the next game is often toned down.

The result in both cases is, on many occasions—though not always—a letdown effect… so you should be wary of teams favored after such scenarios.

5-Popularity Leads to False Favorites

Teams like the New England Patriots in the NFL or Real Madrid in Soccer have many supporters who often have high hopes and beliefs in them, even when they aren’t playing that well.

With that in mind, the Oddsmakers can make them as outright favorites in a game that they look destined to lose, or maybe open the lines placing them as underdogs, and then soon make them favorites once the oblivious public starts pounding on them in the betting lines.

The result, as you expect, is often not a good one and recreational bettors, especially those who don’t know much about certain teams and players, fall for this ploy every time.

The next time you notice this; I bet you now know what to do… Mind you, sometimes even unpopular teams are favored wrongly, so keep an eye out for that, as well.

6-Calamities and Miscellaneous Influences…

Special circumstances such as the death of a player in a school, death of a coach, death of an athlete’s loved one, firing of a coach or even quarrels within the management in an organization can equally have a negative impact on the motivation of players and teams, so tread precariously when wagering on favorites who are going through such influencing factors.

Final Thoughts

Betting on favorites feels safe—but in reality, it’s often where bookmakers extract the most value from casual bettors. The edge doesn’t come from picking winners; it comes from identifying mispriced odds. By understanding form, psychology, injuries, and market behavior, you position yourself ahead of the public and closer to long-term profitability.

Discipline, patience, and value-driven decisions—not hype—are what separate sharp bettors from losing ones.

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About the Author

Henry Watkins

Henry Watkins is a Sports Writer at MyBookie. Originally from Scotland and currently residing in Metro Atlanta with his wife Penny, Henry covers a range of topics, including competitive and professional sports as well as sports business. In addition to his sports writing, he is also an author of horror fiction, with works such as Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.

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